In the last month lots has happened, and we’ve been swamped with trying to keep up. Among other things, I’ve been working on some backend statistics to help us better keep track of trends in various locales. At some point we’ll likely craft a tool that you can use to filter locales yourself, but until such a time, I’ll be trying to keep everyone updated.
What defines “safe travel” ???
One of the key questions about where to travel during this period is “what makes a safe travel destination?” There are a number metrics which can be used for this. For example, one is the total case number. Another is the case number per population. There’s the current case count, the current cases per million, the maximum case count per population, and the current trend. Let’s take a minute to dissect some of these and what they mean.
The total case count is a function of both the population in a country and how well that country has coped with the virus. Given two countries of the same size and population, this can help distinguish the efficacy of a country’s response. However, it’s rare that you are comparing two countries that are both geographically and population-wise so similar. Therefore, comparing normalized total cases or cases per population is better. If one country has a higher count, then historically, it didn’t do as well. This may be for any number of reasons, but one is tempted to believe that the governmental response was less robust (or in today’s world – perhaps the government was less concerned about protecting its population). The maximum case count per population is indicator of how bad it ever got at your destination and may convey similar information. So these normalized metrics could be useful to some extent.
What about the current case count? Just as with the total case count, this number is hard to compare unless normalized by population. When the current case count either over the 14 days or else 28 day period period per population (usually per 100,000 or per 1 million people is used), this can give you a sense of the number of active infections, and therefore, it can help you to judge the probability of coming into contact with an infected individual. However, this can miss what’s happening right now, and may not have good predictive power.
To get to that we need to look at shorter time spans such as how the seven day average case numbers per population have changed over this period. If this number is high and positive, then things are getting worse. If it’s negative, then things are getting better. What if you have a high normalized case count, but a negative trend? Then either control measures are working or there is something else at play starting to limit the virus’ spread and make things safer.
Personally, I would be looking for a destination which has a low historic case count per population, a low current case count per population and little or no growth in cases. Many of us buy tickets ahead of time, and as such it can be a bit of a gamble predicting whether a location will still be safe when you go.
State of the World
Okay, so let’s look at the Caribbean right now compared to the world. The US and Europe are NOT looking good in terms of the current case count, but the Caribbean is not looking too bad. This could be for any number of reasons, including the fact that with milder weather, people aren’t cooped up inside exchanging air. It is, in fact, striking that the equatorial zones have a qualitatively smaller normalized case count than the northern or southern latitudes, but we can look at that in more detail on another day.
If we zoom into the Caribbean, we see a bit of missing data, for example Puerto Rico. This island somehow falls through the cracks in the mapping software as it is a US territory but not a state. Therefore in this map it doesn’t seem to inherit the US high case count (we’ll be working on this). Word is that the the active case rate on the island is relatively high (2950 per million = level 3 risk, see below). The US Virgin Islands are slightly lower at 2790 cases per million.
Interpreting the data
To interpret what this means, it’s useful to have a benchmark, like the CDC’s look up table for how bad things are.
CDC travel guidelines as of December 6, 2021 based on 28 day total case rate:
• Level 4: Very high level of COVID-19 (equivalent to 5000 cases per 1m)
◦ Avoid travel to this destination.
• Level 3: High level of COVID-19 (equivalent to 1000-5000 cases per 1m)
◦ Make sure you are fully vaccinated before travel.
◦ Unvaccinated travelers should avoid nonessential travel to this destination.
• Level 2: Moderate level of COVID-19 (equivalent to 500-999 cases per 1m)
◦ Make sure you are fully vaccinated before travel.
◦ Unvaccinated travelers who are at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should avoid nonessential travel to this destination. If you must travel and have concerns, talk to your doctor.
• Level 1: Low level of COVID-19 (equivalent to 500 or fewer cases per 1m)
◦ Make sure you are fully vaccinated before traveling to this destination.
In our maps we have effectively a level 5 ( “Holy Smokes, it’s really bad” which is > 10,000 cases per 1m), and a level 0 (“Looking good!” which is < 100 cases per 1m). From our map we can see that Nicaragua and Haiti both are in the “Looking good!” category. Some say that Nicaragua is a very safe destination despite some political unrest, presuming you know where to go, but the State Department has a level 4 travel advisory (more on this below). Haiti also has a level 4 State Department travel advisory due to massive civil unrest and crime. It’s listed COVID numbers may, therefore, not be terribly accurate.
A Deep Dive into the Caribbean (and Bermuda)
Let’s look past the maps into some time series case data. We’re using the 28 day total and we’ve included the US to start with for context. Here’s what things look like over this region historically.
OK, so this is a bit messy because there are so many countries listed here. If we look carefully, we can tell that the Cayman Islands has, historically not done so well. Is this due to lots of testing or something else? That remains to be seen (look into this?).
So let’s filter things down. What if we say that we want to chop out anything that has never had more than 25,000 new infections per 1 million population per 28 days, as maybe this indentifies countries that take COVID more seriously. Also, let’s limit the current number of infections to 1000 per 28 days (level 2).
This really cuts through the noise. But what if we’re looking to be REALLY safe? Then it might be good to limit our current infection rate to less than 500 per 1m population per 28 days.
But as you know, 28 days ago, Omicron was just starting to be a concern so this 28-day metric doesn’t have much predictive power. It’s hard to get a sense of any quick realtime trend using these numbers. So let’s give these five countries kudos for where they are now, but let’s also look ahead.
To do this, we’ll instead use at 7 day averages. This will smooth things out just a bit, but also give us a better sense of what’s coming our way. Here’s all the countries from before.
We’ll filter as follows, to pair this down a bit. For safety NOW, let’s keep the final 7-day case average down to 250 per day. Let’s also try to keep the increase in cases towards the end down to fewer than 50 per day so that our potential destinations look a bit more inviting.
Only Antigua and Barbuda is added via this analysis. But the analysis confirms that the countries chosen via the 28 day case count are probably relatively safe for the short-term future.
A final metric we can bring into play are vaccination rates as these can sometimes speak to cause and effect. Additionally, traveling to a country with a higher vaccination rate probably means that you won’t be exposed to quite so much virus. Such countries also probably have a better medical infrastructure meaning that if you go there and then get sick, you may have a better chance.
Let’s just plot countries with fully vaccinated levels of greater than 50% and then compare what we get with our prior list.
Of our best prior picks from the last analysis, Antigua and Barbuda, Costa Rica, and Cuba are included here.
Best destinations
Caveat: these can change tomorrow based on the rapid rise of Omicron!!!
Our best destinations are picked based on showing up in the finalists for all three analyses done above. There are only two this time: Costa Rica and Cuba, and we want to stress that right now numbers are rising almost everywhere. This information may be outdated tomorrow.
Costa Rica
As with other countries on this list, the State Department is not necessarily up to date with CDC travel ratings and issues excessive caution when traveling to Costa Rica. But given that spike in daily cases (raw numbers) we see at the start of January, caution traveling here and anywhere else is probably warranted. Despite its lag in updating, the State Department page is very useful for all other things related to travel. But it is also good to look at Costa Rica’s own travel page for information. Costa Rica being Costa Rica is, well, different in how they approach things. If you have proof of vaccination, then you’re good to go, subject to the restrictions listed below. If you don’t have proof or have not been vaccinated, you are required to buy a travel policy which covers $50k in COVID related expenses, and $2k for lodging while quarantining. Additionally, all visitors must complete the digital health pass within 72 hours of entering the country. Masks are required in all public spaces and all indoor spaces except when eating, when alone, or in a private home.
Cuba
If you hold US citizenship, travel to Cuba is still somewhat restricted. You will still need a visa and a good excuse since tourism from the US still isn’t officially allowed. Our COVID ratings place Cuba as a top destination given current numbers, rate of growth, vaccination rate, and boosting rate. But the CDC still has Cuba listed as moderate risk. Likewise, we are only beginning to see the effect of Omicron, and a number of neighboring islands have higher rates. See the US State Department’s website here for more information on Cuba. Vaccine passports or else negative COVID PCR tests taken within 72 hours of arrival must be presented to enter. Masking is required throughout the country. Cuba’s tourism page can be found here.
Runners Up
All runners up showed up as finalists in two of the three analyses. Remember that these analyses look at COVID only, and not political situations or the potential for experiencing crime. There is one twist with one our our Runners Up, Nicaragua, where on-the-ground sources claim that the official data are not reliable. We look at Nicaragua* separately below.
Antigua and Barbuda
The US State Department’s page was last updated on September 21st when there was still a rapidly rising case count here. Based on current numbers and vaccination percentages, this country is now in the “Looking Good!” range. However, we say this with caution due to the Omicron surge almost everywhere. As per the country’s travel page, all arrivals over 18 must present evidence of full vaccination to enter. Furthermore all passengers aged 5 or older must present negative COVID tests (as shown on the travel page). Unvaccinated minors not staying at a certified resort will be required to quarantine for 14 days. Masks are required in all public places.
Guatemala
In this case, the US State Department’s web page was updated on December 28th, however their COVID information seems old as they list Guatemala in the level 2 COVID tier. Our own analysis of current data shows that Guatemala is level 1 instead. However, we should note the definite uptick of cases over the past few days shown in the graph above. It’s therefore worth watching these numbers carefully to see what happens. As for safety due to other causes, the State Department web site does list places to avoid. There is a higher crime level there than in the US, but gun violence is seven times more prevalent in the US (see this). Like many countries, there are enhanced entry requirements under COVID. To get into the country if you are neither a citizen nor resident, you must present proof of full vaccination if you are 12 or older. If you are 10 or older, you must also present a negative PCR test taken within 3 days of entry. If you are coming from a high-risk country, you may also be required to self-quarantine upon arrival for 10 days. Wearing face masks is required in all public places.
Honduras
The US State Department has indicated that between COVID and crime, you should reconsider travel to Honduras. Their statistics with respect to COVID seem a bit dated – they show a level 2 risk, our data indicates level 1 risk. Regardless, there is a limited capacity in Honduras to handle severe COVID. As for safety, there is more crime in Honduras than in the US, but the US has 14 times more gun crime. Here’s an honest look at safety there. To enter Honduras, all travelers aged 2 or older need to show proof of vaccination and a negative COVID test taken within 24 hours of entry. If one has not been vaccinated, there is the option of presenting documentation indicating recovery from COVID in the last 90 days. Masks are required in public along with other sanitary practices.
What’s up with Nicaragua*?
Looking at the data for Nicaragua, one immediately becomes aware of the reporting which seems to be weekly rather than daily. This means that it’s harder to see real time trends, and the rise in case numbers potentially due to Omicron, which we have seen elsewhere in Latin America, don’t show up yet. As it turns out, there’s some real debate about the numbers here based on work by the organization called Citizen’s Observatory which claims that the case rate is four times higher and the death rate 20 times higher than official figures. Here’s a link to their dashboard (in Spanish). Given this debate, it’s not clear that we can make valid inferences from the data provided.
Additionally, the US Embassy in Nicaragua has issued the following alert:
Our official 4 week case count for Nicaragua is 233. If case numbers really are four times the official numbers, the real number is closer to 932. This brings Nicaragua up to level 2, and given both the travel warning and the unreliability of these numbers, we are not recommending going there at this time.
Summary
In the end, you must decide what risks are acceptable to you. With Omicron rising rapidly in many places all over the world, it may a good idea to wait until the wave passes unless your travel is essential. No matter what you decide, it’s probably a good idea to get vaccinated (and get your booster), mask up with an N95 or equivalent, stay away from large crowds, and test before mixing in new groups. Good luck!